Due to all the changes made to this fight card the odds for the main card bouts are not all in yet. Once those lines post I will tell you how to play it. In no particular order here is how I see the fights going down.
Fickett VS. Kim: Kim has a 9-3 record mainly against Korean fighters in the Spirit MC promotion. The only guy on his record you may have heard of is Steve Bruno who knocked Kim out just last year. Drew Fickett: 32-5 record, key stat: Fickett has a record of 4-2 in the UFC, most coming as a welterweight. Arguably the most stacked division in the UFC. His key wins are against Koscheck, Pellegrino, and Neer. One of is 2 UFC losses was a decision loss to top 10 contender Karo Parisyan. This fight is going to be very one sided especially since Kim was training to fight Nick Diaz at light weight and will now fight Fickett closer to welterweight. It's not a matter of if Fickett will win but when. If it goes more than 1 or 2 rounds Kim gets a moral victory. Prediction: Fickett in rd 1 via submission (rear naked choke)
Kyle Vs. Cole: Wayne Cole has a record of 10-6. He has fought in the IFL twice and lost both times. Kyle has a record of 9-6-1. Looks like an even match on paper doesn't it? Quality opponents is the key stat here. Kyle's 6 losses have come at the hands of above average fighters such as Paul Buentello and Justin Eilers. More importantly, Kyle has quality wins over opponents such as Wes Sims, James Irvin and Japanese legend Tsuyoshi Kohsaka. Both guys usually win or lose by knockout. Between the two of them there are only 2 decisions and they were both on the winning end. Don't blink during this one folks. These guy's finish their fights in the first round a combined 69% of the time. Look for Kyle to land something heavy and early in the 1st round and win this one easily. Prediction: Kyle by KO or TKO in Rd. 1
Villasenor Vs. Jensen: Jensen has a record of 11-3. Notable wins, none. Notable losses are to Brock Larson, Thales Leites and Demian Maia. All losses coming via submission. Joey Villasenor has a record of 24-6. His notable losses are to David Terrell, Ryo Chonnan, Robbie Lawler, and Ninja Rua. His notable wins are against Jorge Santiago, David Loiseau and Riki Fukuda. Any way you slice it the outcome is going to be bad for Jensen. Out of 24 wins for Villasenor 20 have come by way of KO/TKO or submission. No matter where this fight goes Jensen is in trouble. Throw in the fact that he was not the first but the second replacement opponent named for this fight and the deck is just completely stacked against him. Prediction: Villasenor by TKO (ref stoppage) in round 2.
Melendez Vs. Lemley: Lemley has a record of 11-6. No notable losses and one notable win against Clay Guida. Gil Melendez has a record of 13-1. Long story short, this isn't 2004 and the Clay Guida that Lemley submitted is not the Clay Guida we know today. Melendez is a rising star whose lone loss is to another top 10 lightweight. Prediction: Melendez will cruise to a 3 round decision.
Main Event:
Shamrock Vs. Le: Cung Le has a record of 5-0 in MMA with all wins coming by KO or TKO. Frank Shamrock has a record of 24-8-1 with 13 wins coming by submission. Cung Le is a dynamic striker with solid take down defense and intimidating hand and foot speed. Frank Shamrock is an all around technician with accomplished submissions and vastly improved boxing. I just don't see Cung Le being ready for a fighter as experienced and talented as Shamrock after just 5 MMA fights. I know that the argument for Cung Le is his apparent advantage in the striking department. I disagree. I have seen all 5 of Cung's fights. His first two opponents were totally over matched stiffs. He won his 3rd fight via a cut. His 4th and 5th fights were TKO's that came in the final round. Those last 2 opponents took a lot of shots before sustaining any real damage. In the process Le seemed to tire. More importantly Cung Le has no plan B. If he can't win by strikes, he just plain won't win. This is not a winning strategy against Frank Shamrock who has only been KO'd or TKO'd in 6% of his career fights. That's 2 losses and one was a TKO due to a cut. Which really means he's had his lights dimmed one time in 33 fights. The first round will see Cung getting the better of the stand up exchanges but will lack the power needed to hurt Frank. In the second round Shamrock will clinch and Cung Le will perform a hip toss judo throw from his Sanshou days. Once the fight is on the ground it will be the beginning of the end. Frank won't have gotten it there but he will finish it there via submission.
Their you have it folks. Those are my predictions. You might not even have to watch the fights now. You can throw it in my face when I'm wrong and hate on me when I'm right, but remember this. Good predictions don't equate to knowledge. Knowledge equates to good predictions.
Tony "Tito" Ortiz
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2 comments:
That was great! I just got learned.
Nice article!
I might have to disagree with your Shamrock-Le prediction. Though not proven in an official MMA match yet, Le's wrestling is dangerous enough to keep him out of trouble and keep Shamrock's game honest. Le definitely has the knock out power, and I'm looking forward to seeing a KO towards the end of the third round.
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