Saturday April 19th 2008

I woke up Saturday around 11am. I had a brutal headache from all that strong Canadian beer. I showered, got dressed and went to McDonald's. This Time I took my camera so I could take pictures of the area a little bit more. Since this was a college area things seemed very artistic as far as the people walking the street and even the graffiti on the walls. There was a strip club tucked away on Saint Denis Street that I hadn't noticed the day before. A hot brunette was sitting on a bar stool trying to solicit patrons. One of the things that I noticed is how much people in Montreal and probably all of Canad do things outside. It must be because it's so cold for so much of the year that when the weather warms up they are rarely indoors. The outdoor patios of restaurants were all full. The insides were empty. Today at McDonald's I decided to get a McChicken Sandwich. In Montreal it is called a Macpoulet. After As I walked back I took a few more pictures of the area and then took a nap. I wanted to arrive to the arena early so I could retrieve my ticket from will call. So i contact the owner of Premier Fighter and confirm that it is under my name and so on. Then I contact will call and they have never heard of me and don't have a ticket for me. So then I call Matty at Premier Fighter back. He says Jorge Gurgel is leaving me his ticket. I then get all pumped up thinking I'm going to be really close to the action. I catch a cab to the Bell Center and the doors hadn't opened yet but the streets were packed. Mind you this was the coldest day of the entire trip. Definitely jacket or sweater weather. I make my way to will call and there is still no ticket. They tell me to go to the UFC Zuffa line and see if it's there. I go to that line and it isn't there either so I finally call Matty of Premier again. He tells me to hand the phone to the woman behind the glass. Liz Hedges. My hunch tells me she is the mother of Josh Hedges UFC photographer. They talk a little bit and the call disconnects. He calls back and Liz tells him there is no ticket for me. What ended up happening is that there wasn't a ticket for Tony Ortiz, but there was a ticket for Jorge Gurgel. So Matty had to get Jorge Gurgel to text message Liz so that she could release the ticket to me. Only problem with that is that Jorge referred to me as Tom in the text. Liz finally released the ticket to me and I was off. I was in section 101 row E seat 14. This could have been no more than 50 ft from the octagon. The dollar value of these tickets were 550$. Great seats! I want to Thank Matty and Jorge and even Liz for all of their help. I get to my seat a few minutes before the first fight starts. About midway through the Goulet Vs. Hironaka fight a family of 3 women and a young boy sit down in their seats next to me. I figured anyone who brings a baby to a mixed martial arts event must be related to a fighter. Especially if they are sitting in these seats. It just so happens that these people are the wife, son and in laws of mma trainer Mark Dellagrotte. Unfortunately for them Mark has helped train the two most unpopular fighters going into this event. They are Travis Lutter and Matt Serra. All of the fights except one were great. This night however, belonged to Georges St. Pierre. I've never been a part of a crowd like this. Whenever there was a lull in any fight. They began Chanting GSP! GSP! GSP! The soccer style chants were also fun. these people were so into it. When 22,000 people are all rooting for the same guy it can really seem surreal. The fights were great but the cold walk to an available taxi was not very fun. Finally I make it back to my room, pack, drink one more Labbatt Blue and eat the pizza I got delivered. After a shower I crashed at about 2AM. I had to be up at 8am for an 11am flight out of Montreal and back to Ft. Lauderdale. I will finish up in my next blog with all the action from the airport where I had a few interesting run-ins with the fighters. Enjoy the pics below.

A housing project in downtown Montreal.

The strip club on Rue Saint Denis.

Some of the street art near the college.

More graffiti.

The ticket and envelope Jorge Gurgel left for me.

The Dellagrotte Family.

GSP! GSP! GSP!

OHH CAN-NADAH! (part 1)

So it's April 18th. I catch a ride to the Fort Lauderdale Airport and go to the Air Canada check in station. My passport is pretty much all that is needed. It is my first trip out of the United States as a tourist. I have traveled many places while in the military. Everything checks out okay and I am handed a small white card that needs to be filled out before I board the plane. It is asking for my name date of birth and contact info of a friend or relative. I don't have a pen so I ask someone to borrow theirs. I get a lot of stares while at the terminal. I don't know if it's the tattoos or the terrorist beard but I seem to be making these Canadians a little bit nervous. I find it kind of funny and just wait to board. I hand in my info and get on the plane. A stewardess asks about my Triumph United T-shirt. I quickly respond "It's my friend's clothing company." "It's really nice." is her response. Air Canada is pretty cool to fly with. They have touch-screen TVs in every seat. You can watch movies or television or news. They also pass out your choice of 2 Canadian newspapers. The Times and the Gazette. The Gazette is easier to read in tight quarters. Among the movies you can choose from are There Will Be Blood, I Am Legend, Juno, American Gangster and other new releases. Pretty impressive. The one downfall is the lack of snack. They try to hit you up for cash if you want to eat something. Even cashews or nuts. Non alcoholic beverages are free. After a little over 3 hour I am in Montreal.

Before you can even retrieve your baggage you are screened. I'm asked a few brief questions at one post and then am asked to go into another area. This seems to be only for non Canadian citizens. Once I get into this room I can see a few other people being questioned. One person who I instantly recognize is Eddie Bravo. I'm thinking to myself I know exactly why this guy is getting the 3rd degree. His piercings, tattoos and overall look are a red flag. They shouldn't be but like my beard and angry expression, they garner attention. So I finally make it up to the line and the female officer starts asking me a bunch of questions. They ask you the same questions a few different ways in hopes of finding a hole in your story or have you change your story. Who are you travelling with? What brings you to Canada? How long will you be staying? What do you do for a living? Do you have any of these items on you. Are you meeting anyone here? On and on and on. The key is to not get flustered. Which is hard for me because I hate answering to people. So finally I'm no longer seen as a threat and am allowed the grand privilege of entering the baggage claim area. Once my orange and black sack can be seen by everyone in the airport that isn't color blind, I grab my bag and try to find a taxi. HA! as if that were the case. We have to pass one more checkpoint and apparently a white piece of paper is needed to show that you have passed the other checkpoints. Good thing I didn't throw mine away. So I finally get through the line and have another agent check my passport and white slip. He takes one look at me and says "You! Go that way!" I follow the arrows into another examining area. Boy am I lucky. This is the area where they not only ask you the same questions yet again, but they go through every bit of your baggage. As they go through it they ask you questions about the items. Wonderful conversation starters are used, such as holding up my camera and asking "Are you photograph?" I just respond with "No I just like to take pictures."

Finally I am allowed to leave and get a taxi to my hotel. After waiting in the taxi line for about 20 minutes I get a cab and tell him the street and hotel. He says he knows where that is. He doesn't turn on the meter and I figure I'm already getting the shakedown. As it tuns out all trips to the airport are a flat rate of 35 dollars. I think it's because there's only one airport. So i cough up the money and have the guy keep the 40 dollars American. I stayed at an econo lodge in Downtown Montreal. I haven't eaten yet so I decide to just go for a walk and find something edible. A lot of people in Montreal either do not speak English or pretend not to when I ask them for help. Finally I see 2 girls walking by speaking English and ask them where can I get something to eat around here. They tell me there is a McDonald's nearby. I have to walk straight a few more blocks and make a right on "Sandanee." Okay, great. I'm close to eating a little something familiar. I walk a few blocks before asking someone where Sandanee is. they say I passed it about 2 blocks that way. I walk back and low and behold, the streets name is Saint Denis. So I go down Saint Denis to the McDonald's. These streets were packed with late teens and early twenties kids due to the college nearby. I see they have a quarter pounder meal. I ask for 2 number 4's. In case I can't find anything to eat later. I'm not in the mood to walk back down Sandanee to eat later. I take one to go and get one to eat in. It came out to 10$ and some change. I give the girl 20$ American. She in turn hands me 7 coins. I didn't know what to think but was trying to not look like a tourist by himself. So i took my 7 pieces of tin and sat and ate my food. After I ate I took my second number 4 back to my hotel and decided to get drunk. I found a liquor store on the way. The only Canadian beer I know of is Labatt Blue. So I bought a 12pack of that. The cashier rang me up for 21 dollars! That's a 1.75$ a beer for their homegrown swill. I paid by giving the man an American 20 and holding out my 7 pieces of tin and letting him have his pick. At this point i just wanted to funnel a 6 pack and go to sleep. As I walked past the firemen at the station laughing at me and headed back up the giant hill to the econo lodge. I realized that everything about this trip but the actual UFC event, just might suck!

The first room key i was given led to a room that was already occupied. It had beer cans and used linen everywhere. So I was given a room down the hall. This room's phone had no dial tone so I was given another room on the first floor. As I'm changing rooms I meet this guy at the elevator that asks if I'm in town for the fights. It seems every hotel patron at every hotel in Montreal is in town for the fights. So I say yes and that I came up from Florida. And for the 10Th time I get a jaw dropping response to the Florida reveal. He turns out to be a big MMA and GSP fan so I tell him I have a one of a kind shirt for him. A Georges St. Pierre shirt. A Justin McAllister original made just for this trip. When he gets this shirt he flips out. I gave him a few business cards to give to his friends. 3 minutes later there is a knock at my door. One of his friends comes down and wants a GSP shirt. So I hook him up. 5 minutes later their other friend and his girlfriend comes down. I hook him up but I don't have a shirt in her size. I go up to their room after i settle in and I bring my bucket of Labbatt Blue. As soon as they see it they ask me "what are you drinking? Is that Blue?" I say yes, they then make a skunky beer face. Apparently the beer is crap to them. I still drank it. I sat and drank with these people until they were ready to hit the clubs. I went back to my room and polished off another beer or two before bed. I can honestly say if I hadn't met these 4 MMA fans day one in Montreal would be a complete wash. Here are a few pics from day 1.

The giant hill leading to my hotel

The Econo Lodge on Rue Saint Dominique.

The firehouse around the corner from my hotel.

One of the biggest colleges in Montreal

My McDonald's next to an impressive church on Rue Saint Denis.

THE NOSTRADAMUS OF MMA STRIKES AGAIN!

OK, so I'm back from Montreal and just wanted to get on here and toot my own horn real quick. I was 8 -3 for this event. # of those fights I predicted the correct winner and method of win. One of the fights I predicted the exact round and method.

My bet recommendations were 4-1. If you listened to me you made 10 bucks but more importantly you lost nothing. Maybe we should just bet the whole card one of these days and my track record shows it's worth it.

Overall Leader Board:

MMA Predictions: 20-6 (77%)

$trictly winners$: 9-4 (69%)

In Depth Montreal Blog Forthcoming. I will have a really interesting blog up with pictures within the next day or 2.

Thanks.

Tony "Tito" Ortiz

$trictly winner$

UFC 83: Wagering Advice.

On The under card I would definitely go with Alan Belcher. Bookmaker has his odds at -345 which is a steal.

Bet 70 on Belcher to win back 20. Easy Money!

Now on to the main card. Mac Danzig is getting -475 odds on bookmaker. Great odds for a lead pipe lock!

Bet 95 on Danzig to win back 20. Harvest Cheddar!

Starting to notice a trend here? Next up is Michael Bisping over Charles McCarthy. Bisping is getting -330 odds in bodog. Solid as hell. McCarthy is going to be in for a rough one.

Bet 65 on Bisping to win back 20. Keep stacking those chips!

Moving on to Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter. Rich is getting -330 odds on bodog. Don't expect a spectacular finish but Rich should be in control throughout.

Bet 65 on Franklin to win back 20. Thanks Ace!

Lastly is Serra vs GSP. GSP was as low as -475 and as high as -550 t0 -600. Right now he is -500 on just about every site.

Bet 100 on GSP to win 20 and rest easy. In GSP we trust!

In conclusion, you will be betting 395 to win 100 back. aka an overall -395 bet except its spread out over 5 fights so you still have life if you lose 1 bet. As long as the one fluke loss isn't GSP or Mac Danzig you will make at least a 10 to 15 dollar profit. However, all of these fighters should win fairly easily.

Thanks,

Tony "Tito" Ortiz

UFC 83: APRIL 19, 2008 IN CANADA

Main Bouts:

Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre
Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter
Nate Quarry vs. Kalib Starnes
Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy
Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek

Preliminary Bouts:

Jason MacDonald vs. Joe Doerksen
Sam Stout vs. Rich Clementi
Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs. Jonathan Goulet
Alan Belcher vs. Jason Day
Cain Velasquez vs. Brad Morris
Ed Herman vs. Demian Maia

Cain Velasquez vs. Brad Morris:
Don't know much about either fighter. Velasquez is being brought in to win and is supposed to be an up and coming heavyweight. I will take him in this fight.

Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs. Jonathan Goulet:
Hironaka can take a beating but I don't think Goulet will provide that beating. Hironaka could win this one by submission but I think it will be decision since Goulet will be in front of his home crowd in Canada and try to grind it out till the end. Hironaka by decision.

Ed Herman vs. Demian Maia:
This is not an easy one to call. Herman has lost 4 fights in his career. 3 via submission. Maia is a Brazilian jiu jitsu fighter who has yet to be defeated in 6 fights and has won 4 of those via submission. I have flip flopped back and forth on this one and I'm going to have to pick Maia. Herman has either looked terrible against or lost to any fighter with a strong submission game. Herman's cardio will begin failing him midway through the second round where he will fall into a triangle choke and be put to sleep. Maia by submission in Rd. 2.

Sam Stout vs. Rich Clementi:
Sam Stout should be the far better striker in this match. His submission defense leaves a lot to be desired. Outside of his loss to Din Thomas, Clementi has looked good in his recent fights. I am going to give Clementi the edge for being the more well rounded mixed martial artist and for being more experienced. If he doesn't get knocked out first, Clementi should win via submission in the 2nd or 3rd round. Probably via rear naked choke. Clementi by submission in round 2.

Alan Belcher vs. Jason Day:
Alan Belcher had to pull out of his last fight due to illness. He had trained and still tried to fight even with one working lung. The doctors didn't clear him and he flew back home. Expect Belcher to take out his frustration on Jason Day. Belcher by KO/TKO in RD. 1



Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek:
Danzig is back at his natural weight of 155. This fight will not be close. Danzig will get the better of the stand up and once the fight hits the ground the submission will be early. I'd be surprised if this fight went past round 1. Danzig via submission Rd. 1.

Nate Quarry vs. Kalib Starnes :
I respect Nate Quarry but I do not feel he should be fighting. He has a surgically fused back, his mobility is shot, he has almost zero head movement at all in his stand up game and I don't think anything can shake off the cage rust he has. 1 fight in almost 3 years is tough to overcome without throwing in injuries and age. Starnes needs the fight to go to the ground one time in order to secure the victory. I could see Quarry grinding out a decision loss but I'm going to predict a Starnes submission late in the fight. Starnes by submission in round 3.

Jason MacDonald vs. Joe Doerksen:
This match is going to come down to the ground game where both fighters excel. J-Mac is just a superior athlete and his conditioning will give him the advantage. He will win a unanimous decision. MacDonald via decision.



Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy:
Bisping hasn't looked too impressive in his last 2 fights. Most people believe he got a gift decision against Matt Hamill and it's impossible to have a good looking fight against Rashad Evans. Bisping is going down a weight class and entering a 185 lb. match for the first time. He will be the taller stronger and more well rounded fighter in this match up. Bisping by TKO in Rd. 2.



Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter:
Rich Franklin will be a contender at 185 lbs. his whole career. The problem is he will not be a champion again if it means beating Anderson Silva. Travis Lutter is no Anderson Silva. I think Rich will respect Lutter's ground game a little bit too much and win this one via a cautious decision. Franklin by decision.



Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre:
I lost a lot of money in their last fight. Enjoy that lottery ticket Serra. GSP will not lose this fight. He is one of the best athletes we will ever see in this sport. After he dominates Serra and wins this Saturday we will be treated to one of the greatest moments in the sport of MMA. GSP celebrating with his hometown fans, avenging his last of only 2 losses in his career and validating himself as a dominant champion in arguably the toughest division in the UFC. GSP by KO/TKO in round 1.



I will be attending this event and leave for Montreal on Friday morning. I will post my gambling recommendations on Thursday. Sorry I haven't been blogging as much. I was just waiting for this event to near. I will tell you how everything goes in Canada next week. Thanks for reading.

Tony "Tito" Ortiz

The Nostradamus of MMA?

That's what they call me? After yesterdays results it's plain to see why. 9-3 record for last nights fights. 3 predictions with the exact ending round and method of victory. 4 with the exact method of win. 2 with the correct fighter. In fact 2 of my 3 wrong predictions were decisions so even that wasn't so bad. These were close fights on paper folks.

As for the wagers. If you took my advice you didn't lose any money and even made a little in return. If you bet on all of my predictions you are sitting pretty right now. Let's go to the leader board.

MMA Predictions: 12-5 (71%)

$trictly winner$: 5-3 (63%)

IFL predictions forthcoming. Thanks.

Tony "Tito" Ortiz

$trictly winner$ (UFC FIGHT NIGHT)

No guts no glory. Sometimes you have to listen to that little voice that either gives you a good feeling or a bad feeling about the bets you are thinking of placing. I have a good feeling about today's events. Such a good feeling I'm going to the New York Mets baseball game and watching the fights when I get back home. Now let's get down to the needy greedy.

George Sotiropoulos is getting -180 odds on bodog. 40$ gets you 22$ back.

Din Thomas is getting -200 odds on bodog. 40$ gets you 20$ back.

Frank Edgar is getting -220 odds on bodog. 40$ gets you 18$ back.

Matt Hamill is getting -185 odds on bodog. 40$ gets you 21$ back.

Nate Diaz is getting -150 odds on bodog. 40$ gets you 26$ back.

Kenny Florian is getting -200 odds on bodog. 40$ gets you 20$ back.

Those are my recommendations and that's how I'm playing it. Not only because that's who I think will win, but, if these predictions are just 66% accurate (4 of 6) you will at worst break even. If they are 83% accurate (5 of 6) you will make a minimum 61$ profit. If these picks are all correct. you will make a 127$ profit. On top of that is the thrill of betting on 6 fights tonight. For a 6 fight bet it's a pretty safe play. Have fun and good luck. Let's Go Mets!

Tony "Tito" Ortiz

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 13: FIGHT BY FIGHT ANALYSIS

FIGHT CARD:

Main Card Bouts:

Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon
Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves
Matt Hamill vs. Tim Boetsch
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Nate Diaz
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
Preliminary Bouts:

Marcus Aurelio vs. Ryan Roberts
Din Thomas vs. Josh Neer
Manny Gamburyan vs. Jeff Cox
Clay Guida vs. Samy Schiavo
George Sotiropoulos vs. Roman Mitichyan
Tommy Speer vs. Anthony Johnson

Speer Vs. Johnson:
Two relative unknowns. Johnson will go for the knockout and Speer will go for the take down. I think Speer will land the take downs at will and just lay on top of Johnson for 3 rounds and earn a unanimous decision.

Sotiropoulos Vs. Mitichyan:
George S. is a really tough fighter with Strong Jiu Jitsu and has fought the tougher competition. Roman M. appears to have a solid ground game as well. Roman M. is a question mark since we didn't get to see him on the past season of the Ultimate Fighter reality show. I think he will do enough to last through the entire fight and lose via 3 round unanimous decision.

Guida Vs. Schiavo:
This is Guida's bounce back match after a disappointing loss to Roger Huerta. Look for a typical Guida fight where he pushes the pace and overwhelms his opponent. I see this one ending in a TKO via ref stoppage in round 2.

Gamburyan Vs. Cox: Many Gamburyan should make quick work of Jeff Cox. This match will be very similar to the Guida - Schiavo match and I see it ending with Cox tapping. Manny wins this one via submission in round 1.

Thomas Vs. Neer:

This match should see some good exchanges on the feet early until Din slips a Neer combo scores the take down and locks in the submission. Neer is very tough at 155 so I see this happening in the second round. Din Thomas by submission in round 2.

Aurelio Vs. Roberts:

Roberts is a replacement in this fight. Replacements rarely do well. He takes Spencer Fisher's place and the fans lose out on another intriguing Fisher bout. Roberts doesn't stand much of a chance here. Aurelio works a steady pace to secure the take down and submission in the second round.

Alexander Vs. Irvin:

Any fighter stupid enough to stand with Houston Alexander deserves to lose the fight. Why give the guy his only chance at winning on a silver platter. In the immortal words of BJ Penn "Andy, take him down!" James "The Sandman" Irvin better heed this advice or else he is getting put to sleep in brutal fashion. I don't think Irvin is going to make such a tactical mistake. He will win by TKO via punches from the mount in round 1.

Edgar Vs. Maynard:

I don't see this one being as close as some people. Edgar is faster to the punch and faster shooting in for a take down. He will cruise to a 3 round unanimous decision over Gray Maynard.

Pelegrino Vs. Diaz:

Pelegrino is a good test for Nate Diaz. He has good Jiu Jitsu and likes to trade and show his boxing. Nate Diaz never gets tired. Pelegrino does. Nate will throw punches in bunches on the feet and when the fight eventually goes to the ground he will attempt nonstop submissions until he catches Kurt in something. Nate Diaz wins this one via submission in the 3rd. round.

Hamill Vs. Boetsch:

The only problem I have with Matt Hamill is that somewhere along the lines he started thinking he is a striker. He is a great wrestler and his strikes would be better served on the ground. If he stands with Boetsch he is giving him his one and only chance of winning this fight. The lottery ticket KO. I don't see that happening. Hamill takes down a tired Boetsch midway through the second round and ground and pounds him en route to a TKO victory.

Parisyan Vs. Alves:

Here is the underdog with the best chance of winning in the night. Alves is like a freight train of momentum right now. In his biggest match of his career he finds himself against perennial contender and judo black belt Karo Parisyan. The key to this match is going to be Thiago's take down defense. Karo's cardio comes into question almost every fight. Alves will stuff the take downs early. Win the exchanges on the feet and take this one into the third round. Karo will be sucking wind and hoping for a take down to lay on top of Thiago and ride out the fight. He will find himself on the bottom of alves and his punches a lot this fight. Alves wins via TKO ref stoppage in the third. Parisyan will protest the decision with a bloodied mouth that will tell the tale of the fight.

Florian Vs. Lauzon:

Inexplicably Kenny Florian finds himself in yet another main event. The UFC sure does love this guy. Lauzon is an up and comer with a lot of upside and now trains with BJ Penn. The only problem is that Florian does everything Lauzon does, only better. Wherever this fight goes Lauzon will be on the losing end. I see Lauzon catching a lot of elbows from the bottom and losing a 3 round decision. Florian by unanimous decision.